If Microsoft continues developing Nokia’s Android phones, that’s fine by me

We are now a week into Microsoft’s ownership of Nokia’s handset business and, contrary to some media reports that the pairing “changes everything,” not much seems to have changed. It will be years, not weeks or even months before we see how the deal works out.

I am hopeful with reservations — or as doctors say “guardedly optimistic” — that Microsoft Phone, as Microkia products should be called, will be successful. Yes, that is damning with faint praise as it would be hard to be less successful than Microsoft’s handset ventures thus far.

But, I’ll go farther:

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• Microsoft Phone will gain significant market share in emerging markets, potentially including China. I think people who don’t have a computer will likeWindows Phone 8.1 a lot more than PC users do on their desktops and portables.

• A warning: Microsoft probably needs more manufacturers than the former Nokia if it wants to cover the world in Microsoft Phones. Can it get that support? Even giving the OS away for free? I am not sure. And if Microsoft wants to continue developing Nokia’s Android phones, that’s fine by me.

• Microsoft might find a way to make its phone the logical replacement for BlackBerry devices as they end-of-life. Microsoft could even strike a software deal with BlackBerry that would make the Microsoft hardware integrate more easily. This could drive business sales in major global markets.

• Nokia has a knack for creating colorful, quirky phones and a reputation for good photography. Both of those will play to Windows Phone’s strengths. It is, after all, a quirky operating system, Metro interface and all.

• I think Microsoft, perhaps more than Apple, understands that a smart phone will be all the computer and Internet that many second and third-world customers will have access to.

• I don’t think Microsoft will, anytime soon, make its phone as much a part of its ecosystem as Apple has done with the iPhone. In this regard, Microsoft has two ecosystems — enterprise and everyone else — to worry about. Microsoft should work hard on deals that place thousands of devices into corporations and take its time, perhaps, with consumer markets in developed nations.

• The new team in place at Microsoft has shown its willingness to deviate from doctrine of Windows-first, damn everything else. Going forward, it will be services (another way of saying software) first followed by the operating systems needed to access them. I’d still like to see Microsoft do what Apple did so successfully: Drop its user interface on top of a Unix-based OS.

• I am bullish on tablets, but not so much on Microsoft’s tablet, as business tools. I like tablets, such as Dell’s Venue 11 models, that can easily become a small notebook-ish computer with the addition of a keyboard.

• I have great confidence that if Microsoft can be redirected that Satya Nadella‘steam can do it. Microsoft has talented executives across its business units, now reorganized with a charter to work with one another rather than chop each other at the knees.

• Microsoft’s troops have reason to be excited. Things are changing, include the end of the much-hated/feared “stack” ranking system for performance reviews. Toriff off FDR, the only thing Microsoft has to fear is Microsoft itself. That’s not totally true — there are big competitors — but Microsoft is almost always its own worst enemy.

• Put another way: Microsoft has hurt itself more than any single competitor has hurt Microsoft. Steve and Bill have to share a lot of the blame for this.

• Have I mentioned how much I like Satya? No, I haven’t met him, but he projects hugely well. And his body language says he’s a man on the move. I hope he will make trust, getting people to trust and even believe in Microsoft, a huge priority. If this can happen internally, it will spread to the customers.

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Right now, I don’t plan to give up my iPhone for a Microsoft Phone, though I will try to get one for long-term testing. I don’t think Apple should be very concerned right now, but was surprised (pleasantly) when Molly Wood reported in a New York Times video that Android users might consider switching to Microsoft. (I’d add a link but the video seems to have vanished from the NYT site).

So, guardedly optimistic I shall be. But that is better than the pity I’ve previously felt for Microsoft’s handsets.